Agoda in Priceline Q1 2010 earnings call

I have to let the stalker in me control the blog every now and then. Hence my continued series of posts where I look through the Priceline earnings announcements to find mentions and information on their Agoda subsidiary. The Agoda turnover information void was substantially filled by a recent Citigroup report but I am still interested in the (tiny) pieces of information I can gather on Agoda's performance.

Two things I am keeping an ear/eye out for in Agoda/Priceline announcements/transcripts (thanks to Morning Star for the Q1 2010 transcript). Firstly general information on performance and secondly anything on integration of inventory between the three models (opaque of Priceline, negotiated retail of Booking.com and merchant of Agoda). Here is what the transcript has on those questions.

On performance

On general performance CEO Jeffrey Boyd made a number of positive comments on Agoda’s performance. Saying that Agoda and year on year improvements in ADR were strong contributors to the 73% increase in international gross bookings growth (on a local currency basis). Agoda’s growth now seems to be having enough of an impact to shift the overall retail/merchant model mix. In this area Boyd said.

"Merchant gross bookings increased 25% as merchant hotel gross bookings both at priceline and Agoda offset year-over-year decreases in opaque airline ticket and rental car sales, where reduced industry capacity squeezed inventory available for opaque discounting."

But the future is not without challenge or risk – as we should expect for a business based in Thailand. As Boyd observed

"...civil unrest has reemerged in Thailand, severely disrupting certain sections of Bangkok and forcing Agoda’s team to relocate to temporary offices. As a result, business for Bangkok and other Thai destinations is under pressure for both Agoda and Booking.com. Nevertheless, both businesses continue to grow their overall Asian pacific businesses at impressive rates."

During the Q&A Mark Mahaney of Citigroup (author of the Agoda turnover report). Asked Boyd to give some more details on the Asian business. Here is the exchange edited to focus only on the Asia elements:

“Mahaney: ...could you comment a little bit more on the Asia business, particularly the Agoda asset? In the past, you’ve said that’s been growing close to triple digits year-over-year. Were the disruptions in the March quarter significant enough to take that growth rate materially below that level?

Boyd: With respect to Asia and Agoda... the disruptions had a very significant impact on business for Bangkok and Thai destinations. And while I don’t want to give a specific growth rate for Agoda, their business notwithstanding those disruptions are still growing at a faster rate than our overall business ...I’ll also add that the Booking.com business is growing, again..at impressive rates in Asia. So, Thailand is certainly having an impact, but the business is diverse within the region and the region is having very strong growth for us just in general”

On Inventory integration

He was then asked about the integration of inventory between the different brands. Boyd is still not giving away much here. It is clear that we have seen and can expect to see Booking and Agoda inventory appear on both sites but is not clear from his comments whether we can expect to see merchant and negotiated retail seamlessly integrated in the way that Expedia has started to do with its merchant and Venere backed Expedia “EasyManage” hotels. Here is that exchange (edited for focus on integration).

"James Cakmak - Sidoti & Company: Can you talk about the progress made on sharing supply inventory across your multiple brands and sites?

Boyd: With respect to sharing supply, we now have on priceline.com, Booking.com inventory available not only in Europe, but also in North America and Agoda has been selling for several quarters inventory of Booking.com to its customers in Asia. I think that we’ve made very good progress in getting that integration up and running, and we believe it’s been additive to the business. The next phase of that is really one of optimization to make sure that we’re able to display the inventory in a way that is additive to the Group as a whole and understand the relationships between how various inventory performs in different marketing channels. It’s not a trivial exercise, but in our view we’ve got plenty of time to get it just right, because as we optimize over time it will be beneficial to our results. So we’re encouraged by our progress on that front, but there is plenty of work left to do in that regard.”

Five star weekend and at $5 cappuccino

I enjoyed an amazing night this weekend at the Observatory Hotel in Sydney. One of my favourite five star hotels in Sydney. There is a lot to remember about a stay at this great hotel - see my previous review for highlights. Sometimes it is the little things that are the best. The photo attached with this post is the over-the-top but smile generating efforts that the Observatory barista goes to in making their $5 cap a memorable experience. Well worth it. And the winner is....

Overhead at Eyefortravel TDS – social media stole my conference

The word social media appeared nowhere in the title for Eyefortravel’s Trave Distribution Summit Asia (they have other conferences that do) but it was the number one topic from presenters on April 29 in Singapore.

In my keynote, I spoke about the rise of transactional questions on Facebook and Twitter. I highlighted a number of examples of consumers using twitter and Facebook to ask questions that are begging for advertisers to provide answers. Opening up social search as a real competitor for Google. Sharat Dhall of Tripadvisor spoke of the never ending flood of user reviews/photos and hotelier responses. Particularly of interest in his presentation was the launch of TripWow and how Tripadvisor is expanding their insatiable lust for content from text to photos. Joe Nguyen of comScore showed the numbers with a left to right sharp incline for Facebook travel stats. Starwood spoke of having 1 million mentions in social media in 2 weeks (though many of us weren’t sure the numbers were right). Brett Henry of Abacus called Foursquare and Gowalla as the future must watch emerging businesses. Morris Sim of Circos Brand Karma told a story of a 4000% ROI on a social media marketing campaign (though admitted that scaling it was extraordinarily hard). Aloke Bajpai of ixiGo spoke of the future of apps and mobile as social devices – as soon as someone launches a more advanced mechanism for app search and discover. Even speakers that started by expressing concern that the conference had become dominated by social media talk ended up talking non stop about the user forums on their site.

It turned me to thinking about whether or not it was fair to hijack the conference and talk so much on this one area of consumer interaction and marketing. On one level it is understandable given that social networking sites are generating the most traffic, buzz, funding and consumer attention. But (as I said in my keynote) we cannot allow ourselves to get caught up in excitement and forget that the number one online battle ground for transactions is still on Google/Yahoo/Baidu/Naver etc. We must get engaged in social networking and content but cannot take our eye, money and talent off the traditional search battleground. My tip for social media was to focus on data, content and customer monitoring first them look to transactions in social media in a year or two (or three). For more on my thoughts see my post ad:tech thoughts here.

Some of the hoteliers in attendance may have felt disappointed that they did not hear more about how to rank on Google, spend on banners effectively, sign up with OTAs, manage content and improve SEO performance. This is was not a conference for talking about what to do now in the places that generate traffic and business. This was a conference for thinking about what was next – where we talked about how to engage with an audience that wants to talk to you and be with you online.

Attendance was solid in terms of numbers with a majority hoteliers, then online agents then technology and service providers. I have been noticing more and more that airlines have all but stopped turning up to online specific conference, limiting themselves to airline specific ones. On the format, eyefortravel are pulling good quality speakers but it is time to do away with the 3x15+QA format. That is the format where each session has three speakers giving a 15 minute presentation each followed by panel Q&A. Conferences like this need less power point and more QA and interview formats. Moving the format away from collective presentations to interview and panels will reduce the sales pitching that continues to creep (and sometimes storm) in and increase the speed at which the conversation gets to the interesting analysis.

Finally snaps to Don Birch who was a great chair. Insightful questions and summaries.

Jump On It raises $1.3 million, joins group coupon war and is targeting $15-20mm in revenue per year

An idea poached from a US mega star star-tup, a business plan and a history of building and selling companies are the pieces that Colin Fabig put together to raise $1.3mm to launch Australian based Groupon clone “Jump On It”.

A press release hit my inbox announcing the raising by Jump On It and caught my interest because I have been thinking a lot recently about the group coupon model boom and how it might impact online travel. Not just because the barely 16 month old Groupon raised money at a valuation of $1.2/1.3b, not just because Jump On In is joining Spreets and Scoopon in the Australian group coupon push and not just because between Groupon, Living Social and BuyWithMe have raised a combined $225mm and counting. Though those are reason enough. The reason is that I am interested is that between the buzz around group coupon systems and zing around the private sale companies like Jetsetter and VoyagePrive I am wondering if there is something new happening in travel and activity distribution. Wondering if we are starting to see another piece in the move toward the deal targeting and recommendation systems we have been talking about here at the BOOT.

On the business model

Jump On It is running a typical group coupon/Groupon model. In case you don’t know the group coupon business model, it involves a retailer/advertiser offering a discounted product or service via a voucher. Consumers sign up to buy the discounted product or service. But there is a minimum sell order/threshold that as to be met before a voucher can be issued. For example a restaurant offers $100 worth of food and drink for $50 so long as 50 people take up the offer. The deal is normally time limited (maybe also the voucher). The marketing company (Groupon/Jump On It/etc) takes the credit card number up front but only charge the card when the participation threshold is met. Usually one deal per city/area is offered per day. Jump On It makes money by charging the retailer a booking fee (built into the voucher price). Fabig admitted that the booking fee may be the whole amount of the voucher meaning that the retailer sometimes makes no money on the voucher – seeing the whole process as a customer acquisition tool.

On raising funds

It is impressive that Fabig and partners Adam Rigby and James Gilbert managed to raise a sizeable angle sum by Australian standards off the back of a business plan and CVs - with no product live. Money came via investment house/deal shop Nextec and from serial Australian investors Roger Allen and TotalTravel founder Malcolm Baker (NB Yahoo bought TotalTravel in 2009)

On competition

Fabig is not worried about the competition from US companies that might enter or the AU players that have already started. He is convinced that the successful coupon players will be those that only offer one deal a day per city not a mass of deals. Means that he sees room for 3 or 4 players to be successful. The Americans don’t worry him. He believes they are a while away from caring about the Australian market by which time Jump On It will have established a foothold.

One of the companies vying to be one of "2-3 players" is Spreets.com.au. Spreets CEO Dean McEvoy is looking forward to battle with Jump On It. “Game On!” McEvoy said in our chat. Spreets has closed a round of it's own (amount undisclosed) and is glad to hear that Jump On It is also in the market as it “keeps you sharp and validates the opportunity”.

On marketing and using Facebook to kick off the business

Fabig sees the challenge in growing the business as a marketing and execution one, not a technology one. He says that the technology is not complicated. Success it is about executing well, building the viral audience. They have been very active in using Facebook as a customer recruitment tool, starting well before the launch. In an impressive display of social media marketing they set up a series of city fan pages (ie I [heart] Sydney]) and claim to have attracted 100,000 fans to use as the initial marketing database.

On scale

The biggest challenge I see is scale. Targeting 1 deal a day per city and focusing on Australia (and maybe NZ) means a target deal market of 10 maybe 12 deals per day (assume six cities in AU, four in NZ, maybe two regionals in Australia or splitting Melbourne or Sydney into two). Groupon is in a market where 72 million people live in the top 200 largest cities (2004 data). Fabig is not worried about this, believing that even with a market of just 10 cities he can build scale and a business generating $15-20 million in revenue per year.

My take

If the US can do it, then no reason Australia can’t. Viral and marketing will be a challenge but nothing that good execution can't fix. The challenge will be scale. Making a one deal a day per city business big enough in a market with so few cities.

Want to read more

If you want to read more on this model I suggest the following posts

1. SmartCompany: Venture capital veteran Roger Allen invests in Australian coupon site

2. TechCrunch: A TC Teardown: What Makes Groupon Tick

3. TechCrunch: Interview with Groupon CEO Andrew Mason

thanks to bixentro's for the photo via flickr

Tnooz: Four types of non-destination based search and what it means for online travel

Just live over at Tnooz.com is a post by me titled "Four types of non-destination based search and what it means for online travel". In it I look into the new approaches to online travel search and boo king coming from a variety of start ups including Gliider, Joobili, Triporati, TripIt, Traxo, Jetsetter, BonVoyou and many more. From the post and interesting discussion has started in the comments on the future of search. Check it out here

Eyefortravel TDS: follow tweets at #tdsasia

Will be at Eyefortravel TDS Thursday April 29. Keynote presentation in the morning on Future Trends and Technology in Travel. Then tweeting at #tdsasia. Follow me via @timothychughes or search #tdsasia.

Business Traveller Tip: 12 survival tips for staying at a 5 star hotel

Surely a five star hotel does not need a survival guide. What's to survive? A five star hotel is the top of the luxury tree - deluxe room, swimming pool, 24/7 concierge, flat screen TV, no kids jumping up and down on the bed in the morning and all on the company expense account. But believe me to get the most out of your stay and business trip you need to head the advice on this Business Traveller Tip "12 tips for surviving a stay In a 5 star hotel" - in order of experiences

1. Do not give your bags to bell boy: When I get to my room I usually want to unpack, shower and go to sleep in that order. If the bell boy has your bags the preferred order of unpack, shower, sleep changes to wander around room for ten mins waiting for bell boy to arrive, open door, wait uncomfortably for 2-5 mins for bell boy to bring in bag and then leave, stress about whether or not this is a country where tipping is required then get to the 1, 2, 3 of unpack, shower, sleep.
2. Prep for check-in: At check-in, in one go hand over ID, Credit Card and loyalty card. Reduces questions, check in delay and problems with name pronunciation
3. Be polite at check-in: You are tired and grumpy but they control everything from upgrades to speed of room service. Be nice. Say thank you
4. Get two keys even if there is only one of you: Keep one key in your pocket and the other in your laptop bag away from your computer. Magnetic key cards do not react well to mobiles/smart phones/blackberries. It does not matter how deep the bath or sweet smelling the soap is, if you can't get into the room because your phone nuked your key and you have to head back to reception for a new one . BTW I hate when this happens and at reception assistants looks at me and says 'you didn't keep your key in your pocket did you? We recommend against that'. Makes me want to pull a Russel Crowe
5. Confirm non-smoking every time: especially for late night check in. Too often I have a non-smoking res only to have the late night staff either not notice or not care. The last thing you want late at night is get to your room, turn around, go all the way back down stairs and effectively check in all over again
6. Beware the elevator with a minds of its own: if you need a key to activate the elevator, them keep your foot in the door or finger on the open door button until the elevator has recognised the key input. Otherwise look forward to screaming at the button as the elevator timer clicks over faster that you can say 'there's no place like home' and sends you hurtling in the opposite direction to where you want to go
7. Bolt the door: Whenever in your room bolt lock the door and turn on do not disturb to prevent any chance of housekeeping walking in when you don't want them to. I even had a hotel give my room to another punter who turned up at 1130 pm while I was asleep.
8. Before going to sleep turn out the lights: Not as easy as it sounds. Five star hotel rooms emit a lot of light beyond the room lights. There is the standby light for the TV, the fire alarm will have a light, the control panel for the room may glow at night, the phone a message light, the clock radio a mid to high glow, the DVD player, the toilet light switch, an emergency light, the mini bar....too often I have turned out the main lights, gone to bed and sat in a near transcendental glow as all around points of red, green and blue lights emit from devices supposed to make my stay more enjoyable but instead bore into my brain. Check around the room before bed to determine what lights need the tried and true "cover with a sock" treatment
9. Eat breakfast in the main area: if you have the option of breakfast in executive lounge or the main hotel restaurant take the main restaurant option not the lounge (unless you need wifi see tip 10). While the lounge offers a quieter (and more kudos filled) environment, at a five star hotel the full restaurant breakfast buffet should come with an exponentially larger range of choice than the lounge options
10. Hunt for free wifi: will not work all the time but the lobby, exec lounge and area near the meeting rooms are the best places to hunt for free wifi
11. Don't express check out: Unless the queue at check out is horrible I find express check out carries more challenges than gains. Charges can appear that you did not plan and receipts do not arrive at the time you are doing your expenses
12. The save money Don'ts: Don't use the phone - if you have to get them to call you back. Don't use hotel laundry service - find local laundromat that delivers. Don't use mini-bar - stock up at the convenience store down stairs.

Now over to you. What other tips are there to help the tired business traveller get around to enjoying fluffy bath robes, pillow mints and all soaps and small bottles of lotion/shampoo that can be stuffed into a bag?

thanks to watchwithkristin for the photo via flickr

Life after Eyjafjallajoekul care of Tnooz

Must see picture of changes in flight patterns pot Eyjafjallajoekul eruption over at Tnooz

The Economist and Title inflation

Who knew that the roles of CEO, CFO and COO were old in nature by relatively new in terms of titles? Who knew that the first CEO title came from the Standard Oil Trust conglomerate? Well Peter Cappelli from Wharton did. Great 12 min podcast from the Economist called "What's in a name" (embedded below) on the history of titles and the resulting 'title inflation.

Google to buy ITA Software (report). If true Google's meta-search march is on!

Back in March care of a reliable source I broke the rumour/story that Google was about to launch a travel meta-search product. Then Tnooz broke the story that the rumour was true and Google was seen inserting pricing and supplier bidding information to google map search results.

The biggest worry that Google has in getting into the travel meta-search space is how to catch up in technology. It is important to realise that each developer that Google diverts away from the core algorithm and ad platform carries a large opportunity cost. Even in a world of twenty percent time, Google is very conscious of the cost of putting developers on the expensive and complicate work involved in specific sector search rather than general search. The biggest question hanging over a travel meta-search play therefore was how would Google find the time and resources to build the product.

Looks like we might have the answer - and it has nothing to do with "building".

Story coming out of BusinessWeek that Google is in talks to buy ITA Software, one of the worlds biggest independent travel booking software makers who count Orbitz (disclosure), Bing, India's cleartrip, Expedia's Hotwire and Kayak as customers. Would certainly provide Google with all the tech they would need to launch a top flight meta-product. And on the entertainment front, would make the relationship between Microsoft and Google even more interesting.

hat tip to Paul Fisher who alerted me to the story via Twitter

BOOT at eyefortravel TDS Singapore April 28-29

Assuming Eyjafjallajoekul calms down enough to let people get to and from Singapore then the BOOT will join scores of others next week at the Eyefortravel Travel Distribution Summit Asia at the Marina Mandarin in Singapore April 28-29.

I am part of the day 2 keynote (April 29) called "Future Trends and Technology in Travel – Planting the Seeds for Profit". Will be on stage with

• Sajith Sivanandan - Head of Travel, Retail and Automotive Google South East Asia. Sanjith's pre-conference interview is here.
• Mark Inkster, General Manager, Microsoft Online Services Asia. Morris' pre-conference interview is here
  
• Morris Sim, Co Founder, Circos Brand Karma

The official blurb for the session is

The progression of technology and innovation in the travel industry continues at a quickening pace and Asian countries are closing the gap on their western counterparts. The dizzying pace has the power to undermine existing revenue models or create exciting and highly lucrative new opportunities for those in the know. Learn from the best to save you time and make you money.

More on the schedule here. Not too late to register here.

Part one of my pre-conference interview is here. Part two is here.

Let me know if you are going to be there on the 29th and would like to organise time to meet me

Help me help Bride to be get out of the UK

A few moments after posting an image of the Eyjafjallajoekul no fly zone I received an email from a friend in the UK. In short she is desparate for a way out of London. Due to fly out of London on Wednesday for her wedding in Sydney, Lara is at her wits end trying to find a way through the ash and into the clouds. How (dear readers) should she get from London to Sydney if the planes wont fly? What advice can you give a stranded traveller desperate to fly over 17,000km in time for her weddding on May 1?

So far we have the following bits of advice:

• ferry/train/drive to Rome or Madrid;
• a couchette train service from Paris or ferry stops in france/belgium to either Mardrid or Rome;
• a ferry to Scandanavia and then Finair;
  
• if there is any chance she can get out of Paris try Air Austral. They fly Paris to Sydney via Reunion Island.
• there are people blogging and updating on Tnooz.com, flyertalk and Travel-rants.com. Check them out for advice - maybe even post a question; and
  
• organise a 'call and hold party'. Get three friends to sit with you and call every airline and online agent (ie ebookers,). Hold times will be more than an hour for each one so have lots of dvds handy

Any other ideas?

Thanks to Misato for the photo of Tarantino's Bride via Flickr

FlightExplorer.com - map of Icelandic ash caused no fly zone

Best map I have seen so far showing the spread of the ash and resulting no fly zone. Travellers are going to be stranded in the UK and northern Europe for a week or more.

hap tip to @hharteveldt

Seat Review - Air New Zealand Economoy Class (Trans Tasman)

I fly a lot (more than 270k miles a year according to Tripit) so doing seat reviews has been a valuable blog activity, reader distraction and (to be frank) traffic generator. But in this case my review of Air New Zealand Economy Class will be redundant by November this year. That is when we expect to see the new Air New Zealand “Skycouch” in operation. According to press reports the Optimal Usability and IDEO designed Skycouch will include a three seat merge functionality to create an economy class bet (well at least for those smaller than my 185cm and willing to sleep with a friend/stranger or two). That all said, the NZ Economy Class product is one of the best in the sky. Full details below but The BOOT rating for Air New Zealand Economy Class is a 4 stars out of 6 or "Good Seat". (Details and scoring system for airline seat reviews)

Getting on Board	Score 0.5
My Star Alliance status distorts the on boarding process compared to a regular economy passenger. So to does travelling with my family. The status gets me premium check-in, lounge and premium boarding. In other words a great experience. The family gets me annoyed kids and a slower than usual progress. In other words a Simpsons like you asked for it you get it experience. On both sides of the draw belt it looks like a typical boarding process. The Air NZ lounge in Sydney is the second best in Sydney (behind the killer QF first class lounge). The Queenstown lounge is too small and was full when we went to use it but that can be somewhat expected. Big negative is that no one at check in told us we had to go to a separate window to pay the NZD25 departure tax. Would have thought this should be in the standard script for check-in.
The Seat	Score0.5
This is the unfortunately redundant part of the review (with the Skycouch coming - full story on new Skycouch here). That all said, the current product is as good as any economy class seat I have flown. Pitch and width are fine. The tray table can be dropped in a half or full mode, which is great for making exits when there are drinks of the table. The remote control is in the back of the seat in front eliminating any accidental bumps, fast forwards or language changes that come from having it in the arm rest instead. Farewell well constructed Air NZ economy seat – we hardly knew thee.
The Service	Score 0.5
I like the NZ culture – Australia with even more of a smirk and one step even more relaxed. Like a cross between the Australian and Scottish cultures except a little more understandable. The Air NZ service is similarly fine for economy class. There are two tests for economy class services. Can you find the staff when you need them (do they respond to the bell) and Do they look for you every now and then to give random acts of service. Air NZ pass in both fronts.
The Food	Score 0.5
For a sub-three hour international flight in economy, the food was much better than expected. A warm and flaky meat, cheese and mushroom pie was enjoyable though the side serve of potato salad was neither enjoyable nor really a salad. More like chalk with pesto rather than a food product. Drinks were the usual with a twist – the twist being New Zealand wines. As a side note – we should all add Otago Pinot Noir to the Marlborough Sav blancs on the list of Southern Hemisphere viniculture treasures. Kids loved the increase which in stark contrast to the usual air served ice cream was not rock hard or milk shake wet – rather it was just right.
The Entertainment	Score 1.0
Great system. 26 films from 1950-2010. Mixture of classics, art and blockbusters. Street Car Named Desire to Full Metal Jacket to Avatar. My new test for whether or not in-flight video is good or bad is does it start prior to take off and last past landing. The good ones (of which Air NZ is now counted) can be turned on as soon as you sit down before take off and last until they switch off the fasten safety belts sign after landing. Only concern is whether not the long haul Air NZ entertainment selection is the same as short haul. If so then the number of films to watch will run out quickly – especially if headed to the US. The TV selection was not as good as CX, VS or SQ but there was more that enough to keep kids engaged. I liked the interface – very iPod like – but some of the older passengers next to me struggled to navigate around.
The BOOT factor	Score 1.0
Nobody watches the in-flight safety video any more. Airlines know this and have been trying to find way s to make them ore interesting. Air New Zealand have produced the best safety video I have ever seen. The staff are naked – covered only with body paint. It is a “cheeky” yet entirely safe for work video. First time in years I have sat and watched the video. First time ever the safety video has made me smile. Youtube link to it here and embedded version below.
Final Score	4.0 - Good Seat

Details and scoring system for airline seat reviews

Thanks to PhillipC for the 1972 Air NZ ticket photo via flickr

901 not out

100 more posts live on the BOOT. 4 years, 200,000 plus words, 150,000 visitors, 240,000 page views and still going. In my regular "not out series" recap I post a few reminders and highlights form the last 100 posts. It started with 101 not out and continued with 201, 301, 401, 501. 601, 701 and 801 not out. Here we go....

Buy buy buy. We may still be waiting for the mega deal but the tuck-ins are everywhere

• Zuji/Travelocity bought Indian based Travelguru
• WRI went for $340mm
• TripAdvisor went further into China with Kuxun
  

Bust bust bust. The Global F'n Crisis had casualties

• Roamfree went into administration as the BOOT had to press delete on comment after comment
• Offline travel maybe dying but I had 3+3 recommendations on how it can save itself
  

Talk talk talk. The BOOT went conference crazy

• Talked EveryYou at WebInTravel - even though a back injury prevented by from actually going
• Joined the Kevin and Gene army of nodes and wrote 8 tnooz posts on subjects as varied as Augmented reality, Lonely Planet, Google, New Zealand and the Do over
• Overheard intermediaries and suppliers sharing war stories at NoVacancy
• EveryYou launched at TRAVELTech (see below)
• Another amazing week at PhoCusWright
• Spoke at Ad:Tech
  

Track track track - kept my eye on big Asian online players that are active in the market but quiet in the results arena.

• Tracking Google - broke the story first that Google meta-search was coming
  
• Tracking AsiaRooms and their TUI A&S stablemates
• Tracking Agoda, finally getting my hands on a Citi reporting estimating their turnover at $244mm for 2009 and early integration with Booking
  
• Tracking MakeMyTrip and claims they have made US$5mm off $500mm in gross sales
• Tracking Lonely Planet and their online plans
• Tracking Kayak and the private sale plans and follow up with Jetsetter CEO Drew Patterson
  

Theory theory theory

• Laid out my predications for 2010
  
• I introduced the concept of EveryYou - arguing that the future of online travel is “The development of a specific and targeted recommendation of one based on the unique combination of desires, needs and interests of each individual at any moment in time”
• Posted my thoughts on the secrets of innovation
• Mused on my 3 rules for a UGC start-up
• Pondered what next for Google in online video marketing
  

Puff Puff Puff - away from the industry I also posted

• More business traveller tips
• More seat reviews
• Introduced the SkyMall follies
• First Class is dead!

I haven't run out of things to say yet, so if you're still listening, then I will keep typing.

Economist: Data, too much information and the Yottabyte

I have been saying for three years now that the biggest challenge we have to face in the online travel industry is "too much information". Now, thanks to the Economist, we can actually start to see how much is too much.

Once or twice a month the Economist publishes a special report on a country or subject. A few weeks back they published Data, data everywhere, a supplement devoted to the amount of information and data swirling around us. Let me jump straight to an extract from the punchline to the article

"According to one estimate, mankind created 150 exabytes (billion gigabytes) of data in 2005. This year, it will create 1,200 exabytes. Merely keeping up with this flood, and storing the bits that might be useful, is difficult enough. Analysing it, to spot patterns and extract useful information, is harder still."

Not all of this is online but according to Cisco, by 2013 667 exabytes of data will be flowing over the internet.

To put an exabyte into context, to store 1 exabyte of data would take 15.6million top of the range 64GB iPads. I struggle to think how we can capture, digest, store, manage, secure, use and more that amount of data.

The Economist gave three interesting snapshots of companies trying to deal with this amount of data:

• Facebook: currently storing more than 40 billion photos;
• Wal-Mart: processing 1 million transactions per hour; and
  
• Oracle, IBM, Microsoft and SAP: have spent more than $156billion on buying software firms specialising in data management and analytics.

The official definition of information is data processed in timely, relevant and accurate form. An IBM survey reported by the Economist found that half of the managers quizzed did not trust the information they had to base decisions on. We have more data than we know what to do with but don't trust it to help us come to the right outcome. The data flood's first consequence is to stifle our ability to turn data into information.

From all this it is clear that we need to learn some new words. Screw the giga, tera, peta and even exabyte. Time to introduce you to the Zettabyte (2 to the 70 bytes or a 1000 exabytes) and the Yottabyte (2 to the 80 bytes or 1000 Zettabyte). Though you will not need to worry about the Yotta just yet. Even the Economist admits that the Yotta is currently not just too much information but "too big to imagine".

The Data special report is a great read - check it out.

PS if you want to read more about what exciting things I think we should be doing with data, check out my series of posts on my concept of EveryYou.

thanks to J.Kleyn for the photo via flickr

BOOT needs new luggage - any recommendations?

I need some new luggage. I need a coat carrier/garment bag that can go on board and a roll bag that can go on board. A roll bag big enough for a pair of shoes, general wear and a laptop. Any recommendations?

thanks to Andrew Stawarz for fantastic photo via flickr

The BOOT at adtech: three trends for any social content strategy

I was at adtech Sydney the week before last speaking at a session called “what is the impact of social content on e-commerce”. During this session I shared my thoughts on the three main trends that an online company has to be aware of in a social media strategy. Here is a post with my speaking notes cover the three critical trends to follow and understand when crafting a social media/content strategy:

Trend 1 - Trust, interest and relevance as (if not more) important than technology

Social media is word of mouth at the speed of light. Successful word of mouth marketing comes not from technology but from trust, interest and relevance. As I mentioned in my lead up interview to eyefortravel TDS next month, getting someone to talk about your brand is not driven by technology it comes from earning a customer's trust, telling them something interesting and making it available in a relevant way. Technology is the speed and connectivity tool but is not the message. The recommendation from this trend is to spend as much if not more time on the message as the mechanism. Just like TV shows in the fifties were great ways to generate word of mouth about soap because of the relevance to the audience, so too they only worked if the soap opera carried a message targeted to and of interest to the audience. The soap operas in themselves were not transactionally driven. Similarly, this is why the initial phases of social media marketing have been content related rather than transactional or deal based. In the travel arena, content and travel stories are more likely to be relevant, interesting and build trust (at this stage) than sending out poorly targeted deals.

Trend 2 - the open ended question comes online

In the nineties and early noughties the job of the online travel industry (suppliers, agents, content and search businesses) was to help customers answer closed questions. Specific questions with specific answers. The last 2 years has seen the shift online from asking closed questions to open question. From a closed question like 'how much for a 4 star hotel in sydney?" or "how much for a flight to new york?" to an open question like "where should I go next?" or "what should I do this weekend?". The first has a limited set of answers regardless of who asked. The second has an unlimited number of answers that change depending on who asks.

For online travel businesses this means using the data we collect from our members, community and purchasers to drive recommendations and trustworthy community interaction to shift form answering limited questions to limitless questions.

Trend 3 - the platforms for social media are still in beta

I am convinced we are at an intermediary step with social media. By that I mean that the platforms are not close to being finalised in form, function or usage. Status updates in Twitter, Linkedin or the new Google buzz are still non-stop streams of information. As I mentioned in my story about tracking the Mumbai attacks via twitter this constant feed of information and innuendo can be overwhelming in volume and unmanageable in determining truth from fiction. Twitter is not a final product, same for Facebook and Linkedin. In fact the social media platform space is still in beta. People were tweeting at adtech that blogs are now dead, long live Twitter. But still only a fraction of the online world uses twitter and there are more cumulative page views being attracted to long form content than micro-blogging update. There is a next stage coming, a next product or iteration of an existing product that adds a management layer, a relevancy later and an attribution/authority layer - in other words trust, relevance and interest.

Blog Roll Update: Robert Cole's Views from the Corner Suite

I have added a new site to my blog roll. Robert Cole's "Views from the Corner Suite" blog. Robert and I worked together in 2004 and 2005 at Cendant. He is now running his own hospitality e-commerce consultancy called Rock Cheetah. He is blogging regularly on the online travel industry. I suggest you check his site out.

Tnooz: 7 companies from the "old guard"

My latest post on Tnooz is live. Title "Online travel reboots – Seven companies from bosses coming back for more glory".

I go through seven new companies formed by the online travel old guard including Triporati, NewTravelCo, Tripit, Hotelscombined, Wego, Getaroom and Voyij

Over-heard at NoVacancy: tweets and chatter from No Vacancy hospitality conference 18 March 2010

Normally it is the end of the year that signals the conference season with TRAVELtech, WebInTravel and PhoCusWright following each other month by month starting in September (note - TRAVELtech is Aug 31 this year rather than usual Sept). But for the BOOT this year the season has started early with adtech, No Vacancy having just wrapped up and Eyefortravel TDS Asia coming up in Singapore on April 28 and 29.

Last week was my first year at No Vacancy. It is part of the same conference stable as Martin Kelly's SearchEngineRoom and TRAVELtech and is targeted at the hospitality industry - all channels - rather than being a purely online or technology conference. I (and others) tweeted our way through No Vacancy under the hashtag #novacancy. Not all of you are on twitter so here in this post are some of the top tweets and quotes I took away from No Vacancy. Here are the the most interesting tweets:

On the market general (Australian bias)

• 2009 hospitality market in Australia according to Dransfield."held up better than expected" "rates down 3%" "revpar down 8.2%". 2010 "good start, expect rate increases" but " lost 40% of capital globally" "another shock could come" They went on "Credit availability + bank conservatism means still shortage of capital" "has hit valuation "av hotel down 20% value"
• Travelclick" gds htl vol in 2009 46mm trans, to 2003 levels". Wonder how much corp bookg decline, how much OTA neg rate growth?

On Online Agents and Intermediaries

• Robbie Cook (Wotif CEO) said "60% of business is direct to site, then organic search, paid is a single digit % of the business". He went on to say that "Wotif saved $2.2mm in costs post travel.com.au business post acquisition."
• Yury Shar Hotelscombined said that "less than 10% of traffic comes from typing in URL direct" "59% of traffic affiliate. Paid 24%, rest organic search" Sam_Linder added in his tweet "@hotelscombined 2 mil visitors pm to 6 mil in last year. Affiliates is primary channel, 15,000 such as skyscanner in uk"
• Latest stats from stayz.com.au "22,400 properties, 270k newsletter subs, 160k bkings/ 650k nts in 2009 (+ 30%yoy)" also advertising revenue

On Hoteliers

• Starwood AsiaPac "2009 -2% in occupancy, -7% ADR for -9% RevPAR in Pacific" "online only channel to grow- branded faster than OTA"
• Starwood "2-3 years to get back to 2007 rate levels" to which robertkcole said "Sorry, Starwood's dreaming if they think it will only take 2-3 years for rates to return to 2007"
• Accor AsiaPac "Occ finished 2009 at 74%. Good but down from all time high in 2007" "price down 6%" revpar down 9%"
• Accor "Online up from 10% of sales in 2005 to 35% planned for 2010" "65% of online sales will be direct up from 50% in 2005"
• Accor "happy with 65% of online business being direct. Won't artificially cap 3rd party distribution or hold back inventory"

Other accom types

• 25-46% of bookings online at "freespirit" (a holiday park/caravan park company). If true for whole sector then parks online larger percentage than hotels

Rumour True! Google trialling meta-search in maps for hotels

Who knew that a BOOT rumour (admittedly one from a trusted source) could prove to be true. I wrote last week that I had a good but unsubstantiated story that Google was planning a launch of travel meta-search. Now we have confirmation that they are putting prices into the display of hotel results with priced links to booking engines. Not all users are seeing this functionality (in classic Google multi-variant testing) preventing me from giving you a screenshot of my own, but over at "eWeek Google Watch" you can see some screenshots of a "hotels in new york" search with prices and meta-search style functionality.

Kayak, Wego, Hotelscombined, Sprice and more - hold on to your algorithms this is going to be a bumpy ride!

More analysis over at Tnooz

PS - WOW I scored a TechCrunch link out of this

No Vacancy tomorrow (March 18) see you there

No time to recover from the digital scrummage of ad:tech. The conference train continues to roll on with the hospitality conference No Vacancy tomorrow March 18. If you are there come and say hello. I will be blogging, schmoozing and tweeting (follow #novacancy).

Google to launch travel meta-search in April according to unsubstantiated rumour

I heard an unsubstantiated rumour today. Someone told me something they heard from someone else that may know something. The rumour is that Google will be launching a travel meta-search product in the US next month (April). Now, let me say up front that this is nothing but rumour and I have not vetted it to anywhere near the levels of confirmation that a journalist would (may Kevin forgive me). Thought this would be a good chance to test out the power of the blog audience. Have any of you out there in blog land heard anything about Google going into travel meta-search in the coming weeks? Bing's doing it, maybe everybody should.

thanks to "This is a wake up call" for the great photo via flickr

BOOT to present at ad:tech March 17 in Sydney

UPDATE and reminder: The BOOT will be presenting today (March 17) at ad:tech Sydney (Convention centre in Darling Harbour). Details of the session are below. Will be tweeting via #ATSYD. It is the last session of the day but promises to be a good one. See you there.

ad:tech Sydney is on this year March 16 & 17. The BOOT will be presenting on March 17 at a session titled.

What Is The Impact Of Social Content On e-Commerce?

Bullets are:

• What role do social objects and search play in the online purchasing decision?
• How can you harness social content to benefit e-commerce outcomes?
• What impact does social media have in powering conversion rates and increasing sales?

Other panellists include

• Tim O'Neill, Joint Managing Director, Reactive
• Mike Hickinbotham, Social Media Senior Advisor, Telstra
• Michael Gorman, Vice President for Strategy, Acxiom Global Multichannel Marketing Services
• Dan Ferguson, Online Channel Manager, General Pants

Here is the rest of the schedule.

Let me know if you are attending and

Agoda's 2009 Turnover / Bookings was US$244 million (according to Citigroup)

I am always on the watch for Agoda results here are the BOOT as they have been hard to find. You will have seen the stellar results for Pricline in this announcement and elsewhere, showing >50% growth in Q4 09 over 08. In the transcript from the earnings announcement I could not find any details about Agoda's contribution to the performance. Finally, via CitigroupGEO we have an estimate on Agoda's turnover and gross bookings. Here is a table with the last 6 quarters of results for Agoda estimated by Mark S. Mahaney of Citigroup (link to PDF here)

Means Citi estimated Agoda generated $244MM in bookings/turnover in 2009 (3% of Pricline's total). Up 100% on 2008. Q4 2009 was estimated at US$78mm up 111% on Q4 2008. Other information from the note:

• Confirmed purchase terms. Acquisition in 2007 for $16MM in cash
  and an earn-out of up to $142MM, payable in 2011 upon Agoda reaching
  undisclosed Bookings and Earnings targets in 2010.
• Strongest search engine ranking markets - China, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, and Thailand. Weakest - Australia, India, and New Zealand.
• Projects Agodas gross bookings at $433mm in 2010, $606mm in 2011 and $758mm in 2012; and
• Models and aggressive scenario where $1bb in gross bookings for Agoda is possible in 2011 if online hotel penetration in APAC increases from 25% to 37.5% and Agoda;s share of the market increases from 3.5% to 6%.

This Citi report is the most detailed analysis of Agoda I have seen to date. Definitely worth a read.

More on China from McKinsey Quarterly

I think I might as well call it China month here are the BOOT. I have another interesting piece for you to read about the Online market in China. This one is from McKinsey and covers online China in general (not just travel). Called "China's Internet Obsession" this article comes from the McKinsey Quarterly (registration required for full article but no cost to register). Couple of highlights from the article:

• China is world's largest internet market in terms of people - 384mm online. 50% increase since 2008;
• One in five consumers between the ages of 18 and 44 won’t purchase a product or service without first researching it on the Internet; and
  
• Online advertising has been growing at between 20 and 30 percent a year—twice the print media’s growth rate—and the market was around $3 billion (20 billion renminbi) in size last year.

thanks to Chi King via flickr for the photo

Motley Fool on eLong, Ctrip, Home Inn and more in China

It is definitely China week here are the BOOT. Two posts on Ctrip last week one on an interview with their CFO Jane Jie Sun and one on their acquisition war chest plans.

This week I came across another interesting post for China watches to read. Rick Munarriz over at the Motley Fool site published a post titled "Panoramic View of Chinese Travel Plays" In the story Muarriz discusses the performance of online travel company eLong (Nasdaq: LONG) , budget hotel chain Home Inn (Nasdaq: HMIN) (interesting side bar - Home Inn was founded by CTRIP founder) as well as Ctrip (Nasdaq: CTRP) itself and even Priceline (Nasdaq: PCLN) and AirMedia (Nasdaq: AMCN).

Good comparison on performance of eLong and Ctrip. Worth a read. Interesting note on eLong. Though it is profitable, more than half its market cap is explained by the $139mm in cash in the bank.

thanks to steve webel for the great photo care of flickr