Showing posts with label agoda. Show all posts
Showing posts with label agoda. Show all posts

Friday, November 12, 2010

Agoda 2010 turnover ~$500mm. Combined Booking and Agoda doing $780mm per year

Back in March I shared with you a report from Citigroup which (at the time) gave us the only real insight into the turnover of Priceline's Agoda. That report estimated the 2009 gross bookings for Agoda to have been US$244mm. Citi projected that 2010 gross bookings would be US$433mm

Previous efforts to trawl for comments or numbers about Agoda in earnings release transcripts resulted in very little (see here and here).

At the Q3 earnings release (see seeking:alpha transcript here) Priceline CEO Jeff Boyd had a lot more to say about the performance of Agoda. He told the meeting the the combined turnover of Booking.com and Agoda in AsiaPacifc was ~U$780m for the 12 months to 30 September. His exact quote was
I want to provide on a one-time basis some data on our progress in new markets to help size their contribution to our international results. Booking.com and Agoda have made excellent progress in building the Group’s business in the Asia Pacific region. The combined business of Agoda plus Booking.com’s business for APAC destinations was approximately $780 million for the 12 months ended September 30, and the third quarter gross rate for that business was just shy of a 150%.
Note - that is the combined turnover, not Agoda on it's own. He went on to say that
Agoda continues to build its business in the Asian region and again reported triple digit year-over-year growth in gross bookings, contributing to the overall international and merchant growth we are reporting. The business has performed well following civil unrest in Thailand and is well positioned for its seasonally important fourth quarter
Also note that in the Q&A section CFO Dan Finnegan stated that there was not real difference in the numbers/turnover from a point of sale or destination basis he said
the point-of-sales businesses [for APAC] is a comparable size and growing in impressive rates. And when you think about the Asian business to the extent that includes business for Agoda, that’s it’s whole business which is point-of-sale Agoda business. Most of that is Asian but it’s the whole business.
If we match the three data points of Citi's estimate for 2009 results, Boyd on the combined Agoda and Booking number and Boyd on Agoda's growth rates then it looks like Agoda is on track for closer to a $500mm 2010 turnover level rather than the Citi estimated $433.

In a separate note we also read that Agoda CEO Michael Kenny was leaving the business to be replaced by Robert Rosenstein (the current COO). I presume (though don't know for sure) that his departure is connected to the fact that November marks the third anniversary of the purchase of Agoda by Priceline and therefore the end of the earn out period.

With the earn out over we can likely expect to see much greater levels of integration between Booking and Agoda (first pieces seen here in January).

Like to know more? Check out the full earnings transcript on seeking:alpaha or Dennis Schaal's recent post at Tnooz

Sunday, May 16, 2010

Agoda in Priceline Q1 2010 earnings call

I have to let the stalker in me control the blog every now and then. Hence my continued series of posts where I look through the Priceline earnings announcements to find mentions and information on their Agoda subsidiary. The Agoda turnover information void was substantially filled by a recent Citigroup report but I am still interested in the (tiny) pieces of information I can gather on Agoda's performance.

Two things I am keeping an ear/eye out for in Agoda/Priceline announcements/transcripts (thanks to Morning Star for the Q1 2010 transcript). Firstly general information on performance and secondly anything on integration of inventory between the three models (opaque of Priceline, negotiated retail of Booking.com and merchant of Agoda). Here is what the transcript has on those questions.

On performance

On general performance CEO Jeffrey Boyd made a number of positive comments on Agoda’s performance. Saying that Agoda and year on year improvements in ADR were strong contributors to the 73% increase in international gross bookings growth (on a local currency basis). Agoda’s growth now seems to be having enough of an impact to shift the overall retail/merchant model mix. In this area Boyd said.
"Merchant gross bookings increased 25% as merchant hotel gross bookings both at priceline and Agoda offset year-over-year decreases in opaque airline ticket and rental car sales, where reduced industry capacity squeezed inventory available for opaque discounting."
But the future is not without challenge or risk – as we should expect for a business based in Thailand. As Boyd observed
"...civil unrest has reemerged in Thailand, severely disrupting certain sections of Bangkok and forcing Agoda’s team to relocate to temporary offices. As a result, business for Bangkok and other Thai destinations is under pressure for both Agoda and Booking.com. Nevertheless, both businesses continue to grow their overall Asian pacific businesses at impressive rates."
During the Q&A Mark Mahaney of Citigroup (author of the Agoda turnover report). Asked Boyd to give some more details on the Asian business. Here is the exchange edited to focus only on the Asia elements:
“Mahaney: ...could you comment a little bit more on the Asia business, particularly the Agoda asset? In the past, you’ve said that’s been growing close to triple digits year-over-year. Were the disruptions in the March quarter significant enough to take that growth rate materially below that level?

Boyd: With respect to Asia and Agoda... the disruptions had a very significant impact on business for Bangkok and Thai destinations. And while I don’t want to give a specific growth rate for Agoda, their business notwithstanding those disruptions are still growing at a faster rate than our overall business ...I’ll also add that the Booking.com business is growing, again..at impressive rates in Asia. So, Thailand is certainly having an impact, but the business is diverse within the region and the region is having very strong growth for us just in general”
On Inventory integration

He was then asked about the integration of inventory between the different brands. Boyd is still not giving away much here. It is clear that we have seen and can expect to see Booking and Agoda inventory appear on both sites but is not clear from his comments whether we can expect to see merchant and negotiated retail seamlessly integrated in the way that Expedia has started to do with its merchant and Venere backed Expedia “EasyManage” hotels. Here is that exchange (edited for focus on integration).
"James Cakmak - Sidoti & Company: Can you talk about the progress made on sharing supply inventory across your multiple brands and sites?

Boyd: With respect to sharing supply, we now have on priceline.com, Booking.com inventory available not only in Europe, but also in North America and Agoda has been selling for several quarters inventory of Booking.com to its customers in Asia. I think that we’ve made very good progress in getting that integration up and running, and we believe it’s been additive to the business. The next phase of that is really one of optimization to make sure that we’re able to display the inventory in a way that is additive to the Group as a whole and understand the relationships between how various inventory performs in different marketing channels. It’s not a trivial exercise, but in our view we’ve got plenty of time to get it just right, because as we optimize over time it will be beneficial to our results. So we’re encouraged by our progress on that front, but there is plenty of work left to do in that regard.”

Monday, April 19, 2010

901 not out

100 more posts live on the BOOT. 4 years, 200,000 plus words, 150,000 visitors, 240,000 page views and still going. In my regular "not out series" recap I post a few reminders and highlights form the last 100 posts. It started with 101 not out and continued with 201, 301, 401, 501. 601, 701 and 801 not out. Here we go....

Buy buy buy. We may still be waiting for the mega deal but the tuck-ins are everywhere

Bust bust bust. The Global F'n Crisis had casualties
Talk talk talk. The BOOT went conference crazy
Track track track - kept my eye on big Asian online players that are active in the market but quiet in the results arena.
Theory theory theory
Puff Puff Puff - away from the industry I also posted
I haven't run out of things to say yet, so if you're still listening, then I will keep typing.

Monday, March 15, 2010

Agoda's 2009 Turnover / Bookings was US$244 million (according to Citigroup)

I am always on the watch for Agoda results here are the BOOT as they have been hard to find. You will have seen the stellar results for Pricline in this announcement and elsewhere, showing >50% growth in Q4 09 over 08. In the transcript from the earnings announcement I could not find any details about Agoda's contribution to the performance. Finally, via CitigroupGEO we have an estimate on Agoda's turnover and gross bookings. Here is a table with the last 6 quarters of results for Agoda estimated by Mark S. Mahaney of Citigroup (link to PDF here)

Means Citi estimated Agoda generated $244MM in bookings/turnover in 2009 (3% of Pricline's total). Up 100% on 2008. Q4 2009 was estimated at US$78mm up 111% on Q4 2008. Other information from the note:
  • Confirmed purchase terms. Acquisition in 2007 for $16MM in cash
    and an earn-out of up to $142MM, payable in 2011 upon Agoda reaching
    undisclosed Bookings and Earnings targets in 2010.
  • Strongest search engine ranking markets - China, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, and Thailand. Weakest - Australia, India, and New Zealand.
  • Projects Agodas gross bookings at $433mm in 2010, $606mm in 2011 and $758mm in 2012; and
  • Models and aggressive scenario where $1bb in gross bookings for Agoda is possible in 2011 if online hotel penetration in APAC increases from 25% to 37.5% and Agoda;s share of the market increases from 3.5% to 6%.
This Citi report is the most detailed analysis of Agoda I have seen to date. Definitely worth a read.

Thursday, February 25, 2010

Priceline talking Asia and growth but still quiet on Agoda results

Three articles/posts this week with information on Priceline's strategy for Asia. They are all good reads and I recommend them to you. Playing to my bias for comments on Asia/Australasia, I poured through the posts to look for details on Priceline's investment in Agoda and plans for Booking in the region. Unfortunately Priceline continue to closely guard the details on Agoda's performance.

The three posts are:
Key extracts are:
  • Priceline likes the dual strategy of brands in Asia - Agoda and Booking.com according to CEO Jeffery Boyd (Schaal's post)
  • Two thirds of Priceline's bookings are non- US. "We expect to have higher growth in the international markets, from new markets like Asia that are less well-penetrated and are currently enjoying higher levels of economic growth," Boyd said. International bookings were up 81 percent in the fourth quarter compared to 20.6 percent in the US. (Reuter's story). In the same story Expedia's Khosrowshahi said that said he expects non-U.S. bookings to account for at least half of Expedia's business within five years, up from 37 percent currently. He went on "We're aggressively investing in China and Australia, India and Brazil,";
  • There are lots of details on the quarter's numbers bu very slim pickings from Boyd in the earnings call on Agoda (seeking alpha) on Agoda. Boyd is very tight on the message of growth but will not be drawn on details.

  1. "International gross bookings benefited from growth in new markets, growth in hotel supply and results from Agoda";

  2. "Agoda also reported improving growth rates resulting in an improved merchant growth rates on a consolidated basis.";

  3. "gross booking growth rates improved for Agoda"; and

  4. "with respect to Agoda, we’ve consistently seen their business do well in Asian countries outside of China and India in particular, that’s been their focus. Thailand is a big market for Agoda."

Tuesday, January 05, 2010

Agoda and Booking start to integrate inventory - first steps

Thanks to a reader who sent through a screen shot of the search results from a Booking.com page for a secondary destination in China. The page shows 15 Booking.com contracted hotels at the top of the sort order then a line/marker that says
Hotels below are offered by other companies in the Priceline Group
Below this line is a list of hotels in the same destination but provided by Agoda not Booking.com. A click on one of those pages sends you to the Agoda booking system (ie link relationship and white label not full inventory integration).

This is the first hint of integration between the Priceline owned Asian based Agoda and Euro based Booking.com. This is not a full back end integration like we have just seen for AsiaRooms and LateRooms. Mainly because it will be much harder with Agoda and Booking operating on different models (merchant vs commission) and I think that Agoda's owners are still in the earn out process part of the sale to Priceline. When the sale was announced in 2007 the earn out period was listed as three years. Integrations during earn outs are hard as the business working under the earn out is completely focused on achieving the earn out targets rather than internal integration needs. As the earn out period starts to close (ie end of this year), I expect to see even more integration between the two businesses.

Here is a screenshot of the search (Zhuhai China)

Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Priceline on Agoda - extracts from Q3 earnings call

As always Seeking Alpha have posted a very useful transcript of the Priceline (PCLN) Earnings (Q3). With no other source of information the performance of Priceline's Asian based Agoda.com I will keep on with my program of extracting and sharing with you Agoda information shared in the earnings call

PCLN CEO Jeffrey Boyd on Agoda results
"Agoda also reported improved growth in excess of 100%, which contributed to the sequential improvement in worldwide merchant gross bookings growth from 22% to 33%. Agoda's growth rates reflect weakness in the prior period due to economic conditions and civil unrest in Thailand, and there are also signs of economic improvement in Asian markets."
PCLN CEO Jeffrey Boyd on hotel numbers- asked " I think you only added 2,000 hotels in the quarter. Any reason that might have slowed down a bit?. "
"...we don't look at the absolute hotel count as defining the market. Our counts on a year-over-year basis are still up significantly. And it is still an important part of what we're doing not just internationally but here in the United States to add hotels to all of our programs, and potentially more important to make sure that we've got the right rates and availability from the hotels that do participate with Priceline and Booking.com and Agoda. That can be as meaningful to the output of the business as adding new hotels."
PCLN CEO Jeffrey Boyd on competitors- asked "anything new on the competitive front that you're seeing in Europe or Asia? "
"From a competitive perspective, I think that you have heard in the conference calls of the two competitors that are publicly traded that they're very focused on the international hotel opportunity, that Expedia is making an agency product available to hotels, and Orbitz is really trying to reorient its organization to focus primarily on hotel bookings. So it continues to be very competitive out there. And we work very hard to keep track of what's going on with the competition, but we also try very hard to make sure that we're doing what we think is right for our business and not necessarily trying to map what they're doing."

"And if you look at the great results that we're seeing in Asia from Agoda and from Booking.com in its new markets, what you're seeing is that every time we enter into a new market we are doing it from a stronger position than we did in the last new market. And so it just gets us very excited about Asia and the Pacific and what we're doing in the Middle East and South America and in North America for Booking.com and the international traveler. "

Wednesday, August 12, 2009

Priceline on Agoda "Agoda had a very good quarter despite the fact that they’ve been running into several headwinds"

SeekingAlpha is carrying a transcript of the recent Q2 earnings call for Priceline (PCLN). Not much was said on the Asian based subsidiary Agoda. There was this exchange between Mark Mahaney of Citigroup and Bob Mylod of Priceline (Vice Chairman and Head of Worldwide Strategy and Planning). Mylod indicates that Agoda is experiences challenges due to declines in the Thai market from general instability and H1N1/swine flu fears. Instead of triple digit growth for Agoda he points to "significant double digit growth". Here is the exchange (thanks again to SeekingAlpha where you can find the entire transcript).
Mark Mahaney - Citigroup

...any qualitative comments on the Agoda growth? I think you had in the past couple of quarters talked about triple digit growth -- anything there? ...

Robert J. Mylod Jr.

...we don’t disclose Agoda separately. It’s part of our international gross bookings which as you can see were very strong during the quarter but I would also say qualitatively Agoda had a very good quarter despite the fact that they’ve been running into several headwinds, significant headwinds at least in terms of how it affects their business individually. They’ve had currency headwinds. They’ve had political instability in their home market, Thailand and they have also had probably a little bit more impact related to swine flu concerns than we’ve had in the United States. But despite all of that, they continue to grow at very significant double-digit rates and we are very happy with how they are doing so far.

Thursday, March 05, 2009

No Vacancy Conference Sydney March 19

NV09: Innovation, Distribution, Inspiration
MartinKelly of TravelTrends has been kind enough to offer me a media pass to attend the No Vacancy accommodation industry conference in Sydney on March 19. If you are going, look out for me in the back blogging away.

Speakers include Wotif CEO Robbie Cooke, HotelClub's head of central marketing Jon Wild, Adrian Currie of Booking.com and Agoda, Cyril Ranque of Expedia and Grant Colquhoun of Travelocity/Zuji (full list here).

Monday, January 05, 2009

The BOOT is back for 2009 with 5 predictions for the online travel industry

The BOOT is back for 2009. Tanned (a little burnt), rested (though could do with another big sleep in) and ready for action (kind of). Inspired by the Travolution article "Predictions for 2009" I am going to open up the 2009 edition of the BOOT with my predictions for the travel industry. Here are my five predictions for 2009:

  1. There are more airlines to go bust. In fact before the end of 2009 a big carrier will go bust or be taken over as a saving measure. Alitalia is a gimme so I wont count the impending Alitalia failure/restructure as a successful prediction. Another big carrier (or two) will fail or be bought in 2009. Update - if you want a list of all of the 21 airlines that died in 2008 check out this post over at cranky flyer;
  2. Domestic travel growth will surprise us all. I am a noted optimist when it comes to the travel industry surviving shocks and set backs. People will still travel in 2009 - they will just go short. Consumers will look for domestic deals and shorter trips to enable them to enjoy the travel and breaks they want without the long-haul price tag;
  3. Consolidation is not yet finished: In 2008 TripAdvisor bought everything in sight, Venere first bought Worldby then joined the extended TripAdvisor family by being acquired by Expedia, Microsoft bought Farecast, Priceline bought Agoda, Wotif bought AsiaWebDirect and Travel.com.au and more. The consolidation in the online travel industry will continue through 2009. There are too many bargains out there;
  4. 2009 will not be the year of mobile for the travel industry: Every year since 2000 we have been talking about the mobile revolution in online travel. This year I rejoined that chorus of mobile revolution fan boys while at PhoCusWright in LA. With the Global Financial Crisis (I am told there is even an acronym for this - GFC) in full swing I think the larger players will pull back from their mobile plans and focus on core products, costs control and customer loyalty. Mobile will have to wait until 2010; and
  5. The dinosaurs will screw up and come out of the GFC even weaker: The big offline players have been screwing up online for a long time now. The good ones have managed to avoid destruction due to the booming economy and the sale of complementary products (land, car, package and especially cruise). The boom is over and the pain is hitting. Just recently Flight Centre announced a likely 33% drop in profits for 2009. In the past I have given advice on how you would know that offline players like Flight Centre "get it" and are ready to execute online. The GFC actually provides a fantastic opportunity to "get it" and join the online travel revolution. Expectations for performance are low during a bust giving offline players time to shift focus and make investments in areas they have previously ignored online. But I think the offline players will miss this chance. Instead of emerging from the GFC with a stronger online focus they will dig even deeper into the offline hole and emerge even further behind the online industry leaders. As evidence of this see the recent interview from new Stella Travel (Australia's number 2 offline player) CEO Peter Lacaze where he confessed to being an online sceptic. [Disclosure - in the past I have consulted to Stella on their online strategy].
UPDATE - Prediction number 6 - the last minute model will come back. I called the last minute model as being on hiatus in May 2008. It will come back as hotels start to hurt during the GFC.

Stay tuned to see what I get wrong and right here. The BOOT is back for 2009.

thanks to Tokyo Boy on flickr for the photo

Friday, November 21, 2008

Priceline CEO Jeffery Boyd on PhoCusWright Center Stage

http://www.mobilemarketer.com/cms/lib/604.jpg
Philip Wolf has just finished interviewing Priceline CEO Jeffery Boyd at PhoCusWright 2008.

Here is my summary.

On US v International
  • Already have more than 50% of business outside of US (see Expedia CEO's comments from yesterday). The international hotel business overtook US in terms of size at the end of 2006; and
  • International split is reflected in staff numbers with 1,600 total staff but only 340 in the US (but note another 6-700 more in outsourced US customer service).
On moving away from the opaque model and doing acquisitions in Europe
  • Was an easy decision to move away from the opaque model and air reliance as the business was shrinking. Now down to less than a third of the business being the merchant model and the largest part of that merchant model is hotel;
  • (not surprisingly) very happy with 2004 acquisition of Activehotels and 2005 acquistion of Bookings.com. There was some unhappiness at Active when the brand was dropped in favour of Booking.com but believes it was the right business decision. Boyd did not provide a direct answer to questions on whether he would expand the Booking brand to the US but did say "with a product in English and the strength of Google we can sell to anyone";
On Asia and Australia
  • (again) very happy with Agoda acquisition. It generated $30mm in gross bookings in Q3
  • Boyd was asked about the strength of Wotif in Australia. He reiterated that there is a lot of opportunity for more competition in Australia. Booking.com are opening an office in Australia with through "a person based in New Zealand" (I assume he means Agoda Chairman Adrian Currie Update - received a message from inside Priceline that Boyd was referring to someone else. Adrian Currie is based in NZ but is the Chairman of Agoda and head of Asia for Booking.com) .
On Mobile
  • In the US - about service and support, not transactions for now;
  • In the rest of the world - likely to be much faster to transactions on mobile; and
  • Generally -"have a mobile site that is caveman in its advancement but are focused on it".
On the Year ahead

Paraphrasing Boyd he said the following: There will be a shake out in the coming year. Companies that are well capitalised and watch expenses will do a little better. The industry survived and grew post 9/11 so we will get through this.

Thursday, October 16, 2008

WebInTravel. Next week. See you there.

WebInTravel Only days away. Oct 21-22 at ITB in Singapore.

On day one I am joining a session with Phillip Wolf and Ram Badrinathan of PhoCusWright. We will be talking the industrying apart and putting it back together.

Later in the day conference boss Siew Hoon Yeoh and I will be running the WIT Challenge - firing questions and issues at top exes from Abacus, Wego, Yahoo!, T2 Impact and PhoCusWright.

On day two I am moderating a panel with the top reps for for Agoda, Wotif, Zuji and Expedia. The big guns from the biggest online companies in the region.

Great event. See you there.

Saturday, February 16, 2008

501 not out

Time has passed and the posts keep flowing. Time for my "not out series" - a regular summary of the last 100 posts that I first started with 101 not out and continued with 201 , 301
and 401.

Just like the 401 update it has been deals, deals, deals that has dominated the last 100 BOOT rants:
Cash flowed into online travel:

I spent some interesting times on the phone doing start up interviews with:
In the weird world of quirky news:
Oh and Qantas turned from being the flying Kangaroo to the thieving Rat.

But I saved my most angriest post for number 400 - the last in this seasons. When the new Australian government said they were doing me a favour by continuing to allow Qantas to over charge me on flights to America.

If you're still reading then I'm still writing.

Friday, November 09, 2007

Priceline back for more in Asia with acqusition of Agoda

Announcement today just ahead of the Priceline earnings release that they have acquired the Thailand based merchant hotel website Agoda. No hint as to price in statement but includes a comment that Agoda's 2007 YTD gross bookings (to 31 Oct) were US$31mm up 122% on the previous year. This is Priceline's second go at the Asian market. The joint venture with Hutchison Whampoa is still active in Singapore, Hong Kong and Taiwan under the name your own price model. Had established a JV in Australia under the brand MyPrice but it folded within days of launch at the height of the dotcom boom years. Is also a model shift for PCLN as Agoda is a pay upfront business, not retail model.

UPDATE - have just seen the 8k filing which puts the purchase price at US$15,074,693 up front (with some in escrow) and potential earn out for three years (or more if "disruptions in the Asian travel market") for up to $141.6mm based on gross bookings and earnings targets (not disclosed)

UPDATE 2 - 7 Jan 08 e-tid are reporting the transaction as closed (reg'd required) and giving the first hints at the integration plans. The article says that the Agoda business will continue to be run independently which we can assume means no brand or business model change (ie merchant to retail). Is inevitable that we such a large earn out component that integration activities will be limited.